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<article url="/content/2009/3/507" issue_url="/content/2009/3" page_range="507-528" type="Article" volume="45" year="2009" issue="3">
<artitle>Optimal Sequential Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Presence of Control Variables</artitle><author name="Andrey" surname="Novikov" url="/articles.html?author=3234"/>
<keyword title="sequential analysis"/>
<keyword title="sequential hypothesis testing"/>
<keyword title="multiple hypotheses"/>
<keyword title="control variable"/>
<keyword title="independent observations"/>
<keyword title="optimal stopping"/>
<keyword title="optimal control"/>
<keyword title="optimal decision"/>
<keyword title="optimal sequential testing procedure"/>
<keyword title="Bayes"/>
<keyword title="sequential probability ratio test"/>
<ams title="62L10"/>
<ams title="62L15"/>
<ams title="60G40"/>
<ams title="62C99"/>
<ams title="93E20"/>
<abstract><html>Suppose that at any stage of a statistical experiment a control variable <span class="tex">X</span> that affects the distribution of the observed data <span class="tex">Y</span> at this stage can be used. The distribution of <span class="tex">Y</span> depends on some unknown parameter <span class="tex">&#952;</span>, and we consider the problem of testing multiple hypotheses <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub>: &#952;=\thet<sub>1</sub></span>, <span class="tex"><sub>2</sub>: &#952;=\thet<sub>2</sub>, łdots </span>, <span class="tex"><sub>k</sub>: &#952;=\thet<sub>k</sub></span> allowing the data to be controlled by <span class="tex">X</span>, in the following sequential context. The experiment starts with assigning a value <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub></span> to the control variable and observing <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub></span> as a response. After some analysis, another value <span class="tex"><sub>2</sub></span> for the control variable is chosen, and <span class="tex"><sub>2</sub></span> as a response is observed, etc. It is supposed that the experiment eventually stops, and at that moment a final decision in favor of one of the hypotheses <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub>,łdots </span>, <span class="tex"><sub>k</sub></span> is to be taken. In this article, our aim is to characterize the structure of optimal sequential testing procedures based on data obtained from an experiment of this type in the case when the observations <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub>, <sub>2</sub>,łdots , <sub>n</sub></span> are independent, given controls <span class="tex"><sub>1</sub>,<sub>2</sub>,łdots , <sub>n</sub></span>, <span class="tex">n=1,2,łdots </span>. </html></abstract>
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